Merkel and Putin Kirill Kudryavtsev/ZumaPress

欧洲危机的欧亚解决方案

莫斯科—乌克兰前总统亚努科维奇(Viktor Yanukovych)被赶下台(并流亡)已经过去了18个月,但乌克兰危机仍陷在僵局中。克里米亚已经归附俄罗斯(许多人认为是吞并);东乌克兰大部被亲俄叛军占据;西方和俄罗斯的关系也比冷战初期以来的任何时候都要紧张。

但哪一方可以声称占优?有些人希望乌克兰归属西方,有些人想象对俄制裁能够通过宫廷政变和群众暴动让克里姆林宫改换门庭,这些人的希望都落了空:总统普京的支持率和往常一样高。在俄罗斯,预测乌克兰马上就会崩溃、其东部和南部省份马上就会建立亲俄的“诺沃罗沙”(Novorossia)的人也收获了失望。

悲剧在于,从人道角度看,这些幻想的代价实在高昂——2014年4月以来,拒不停火已经在东乌克兰造成了超过6,000人死亡——从地缘政治角度看,代价也十分昂贵。看起来双方都誓将战斗到“最后一个乌克兰人”。

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