Lo que se debe hacer para salir de la crisis en 2009

WASHINGTON, D.C. – En el torbellino de acontecimientos y noticias que caracterizan la actual crisis mundial, con frecuencia resulta difícil mantener la cabeza clara y hacerse idea de lo que realmente está ocurriendo, pero, cuando damos un paso atrás (cosa que resulta más fácil los días en que los mercados están cerrados), el panorama resulta más claro y también las políticas necesarias.

Permítaseme primero mostrar el escenario mediante tres observaciones sobre la situación actual. En primer lugar, en los países avanzados probablemente ya hayamos pasado lo peor de la crisis financiera. Aún hay minas terrestres, desde permutas de incumplimiento crediticio que no se pueden conocer hasta pérdidas ocultas en los balances, pero los peores momentos de mercados monetarios congelados y obscenas propagaciones de riesgos probablemente sean ya cosa del pasado.

En segundo lugar y desgraciadamente, la crisis financiera se ha trasladado a los países en ascenso. Al cruzar fronteras, las intensas redistribuciones de carteras y la carrera en pos de activos más seguros están creando no sólo crisis financieras, sino también de tipos de cambio. Si a ello sumamos la reducción de la producción en los países avanzados, podemos ver lo que ahora sufren los países en ascenso a consecuencia tanto de costos crediticios mayores y de una reducción de la demanda de exportaciones.

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