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怎样在2009年摆脱危机

华盛顿特区—在目前的全球危机的各种事件和新闻报道的漩涡中,要保持清醒的头脑并看清真实状况殊为不易。但当我们退后一步(在休市的日子里不难做到),图景就变得更清晰,而我们所需要的政策也同样如此。

在切入正题之前先让我讲讲对目前形势的三点观察。首先,在发达国家我们很可能已经看到了最严重的一次金融危机。虽然还有雷区(从不可知的信用违约调期(CDS),到资产负债表上的隐藏亏损),但货币市场冻结和风险急剧扩散的最糟糕的阶段很可能已经过去了。

其次,也非常不幸的是,金融危机已经转移到了新兴国家。投资组合的仓惶转移和对更安全资产的追逐不仅正在新的国家造成危机,还将汇率危机也带过了国界。在发达国家产出下降的同时,你也能看到新兴国家正遭受着更高的信贷成本和出口需求的下滑。

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