Greece woman on street Michael Debets/ZumaPress

怎样对主权债务违约

伊萨卡岛—希腊债务的金融边缘政策引起了一个问题:这个国家是否(或何时)会违约。平心而论,对希腊及其债权人来说,形成谈判解决方案要好得多。但这一结果还远远不能确定。希腊政府在上个月勉强进行了一大笔偿付,而今年夏天到期的偿付规模还要大,首先是6月的一笔超过15亿欧元的国际货币基金(IMF)债务分期偿还款。

希腊官员在考虑选项时最好记住,主权债务违约的方式也分好坏——特别是如果渴望尽快重塑国家信誉的话。在未来几个月中,希腊政府最好考虑三大指导方针:

不要指责:违约是痛苦的,即使对于长期来说这是正确的选择。不管经历什么痛苦,指责责任总是颇有诱惑力的行为。但抵制这一诱惑很重要。更有可能的情况是,主权债务人必须再次与同样的债权人和国际行动方打交道。很难知道阿根廷在其重大违约过程中欠妥的外交声明对其与美国司法制度碰面时造成了多大的伤害;但很显然,其不当的官方说辞没有形成积极的效果。

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