John Overmyer

Comment éviter une seconde/redite récession globale

NEW YORK – Les hommes politiques du monde ne cessent de débattre pour savoir quand et comment sortir des importants plans de relance monétaire et budgétaire qui ont permis d’éviter que la Grande Récession de 2008-2009 ne devienne une nouvelle Grande Dépression. L’Allemagne et la Banque Centrale Européenne voudraient instaurer rapidement l’austérité budgétaire ; les Etats-Unis s’inquiètent des risques qu’entrainerait une consolidation budgétaire opérée beaucoup trop rapidement. 

En fait, quoiqu’ils fassent, les hommes politiques sont dans l’impasse. S’ils arrêtent trop tôt le plan de relance monétaire et budgétaire, alors que la demande privée est encore fragile – le risque de récession et de déflation demeure. Si l’austérité budgétaire peut s’avérer nécessaire dans les pays lourdement endettés et déficitaires, augmenter les impôts et réduire les dépenses publiques sont susceptibles d’aggraver la récession et la déflation.

D’un autre côté, si les hommes politiques maintiennent les plans de relance trop longtemps, l’explosion des déficits pourrait entrainer une crise de la dette souveraine (les marchés punissent déjà les pays indisciplinés dont les écarts souverains sont trop importants). Ou, si les déficits sont monétisés, la forte inflation pourrait forcer à la hausse les taux d’intérêt à long terme au risque d’étouffer la reprise économique.

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