Wie sicher sind Ihre Dollars?

CAMBRIDGE – Offizielle Vertreter Chinas und Investoren auf der ganzen Welt äußern laut Sorge über die Sicherheit ihrer Dollar-Investments. Da China einen Großteil seiner 2-Billionen-Devisenreserven in Dollars hält, hat man allen Grund, sein Augenmerk auf die zukünftige Wertentwicklung des Greenback zu legen. Und Anleger mit geringeren Dollarbeständen, die leichter als die Chinesen in andere Währungen wechseln können, fragen sich mit Recht, ob sie ihre Investments in andere Währungen diversifizieren oder den Dollar überhaupt meiden sollen.

Die Sorge um die Zukunft des Dollar speist sich aus unterschiedlichen, aber miteinander zusammenhängenden Fragen. Wird der Dollar seinen langfristigen Abwärtstrend gegenüber anderen Währungen fortsetzen? Werden die für das nächste Jahrzehnt und darüber hinaus prognostizierten Staatsschulden der USA zu einer Inflation oder sogar zu Zahlungsunfähigkeit führen? Wird das explosionsartige Wachstum der Überschussreserven der Geschäftsbanken bei   Erholung der Wirtschaft zu einer Inflation führen?

Obwohl manche Sorge durchaus berechtigt ist, gilt grundsätzlich, dass die Ängste übertrieben sind. Beginnen wir mit der wahrscheinlichsten negativen Entwicklung: einem gegenüber anderen Währungen fallenden Dollarkurs. Selbst nach der jüngsten Erholung des Dollars im Verhältnis zum Euro liegt der gegenüber einem umfangreichen Währungskorb handelsgewichtete Wert des Dollars heute um 15 Prozent niedriger als vor einem Jahrzehnt und um 30 Prozent niedriger als vor 25 Jahren.      

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