Occupy QE

NEW HAVEN – Die US-Notenbank Federal Reserve hält weiterhin an einer destabilisierenden und wirkungslosen Strategie fest. Durch die Beibehaltung ihrer Politik der quantitativen Lockerung (QE) –  die den Ankauf langfristiger Vermögenswerte im Ausmaß von 85 Milliarden Dollar monatlich vorsieht – provoziert die Fed ein zunehmend riskantes Endspiel im eigenen Land und anderswo.

Inzwischen sind die globalen Auswirkungen klar, wobei diese akut vor allem Schwellenländer mit hohen Leistungsbilanzdefiziten betreffen – nämlich Indien, Indonesien, Brasilien, die Türkei und Südafrika. Diese Länder profitierten am meisten von den Kapitalzuflüssen aufgrund der quantitativen Lockerung und sie gerieten als erstes unter Druck, als es den Anschein hatte, man würde den Geldhahn zudrehen.  Als die Fed jedoch bei ihrer Strategiesitzung Mitte September davor zurückschreckte, machte sich in diesen Ländern allgemeines Aufatmen in Form eines Kursfeuerwerks auf ihren Devisen- und Aktienmärkten breit.

Doch in den USA braut sich ein noch riskanteres Problem zusammen. Mit ihrem Leitzins von beinahe null Prozent verfolgt die Fed in ihrem Versuch, die US-Wirtschaft zu leiten, einen grundlegend anderen Ansatz. Mit den zur quantitativen Lockerung nötigen Liquiditätsspritzen hat sie ihren Schwerpunkt von den Kreditpreisen hin zur Beeinflussung der quantitativen Dimension des Kreditzyklus verlagert. Damit verlässt sich die Fed auf den  - größtenteils durch die Erhöhung von Aktienkursen und Immobilienpreisen herbeigeführten - „Vermögenseffekt“ als wichtigsten Transmissionsmechanismus der Stabilitätspolitik.

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