Paul Lachine

Kolik přesně je „dost“?

LONDÝN – Hospodářský pokles vyvolal explozi masového vzteku na „hamižnost“ a „nechutné“ bonusy bankéřů. Ruku v ruce s tímto vztekem šla i širší kritika „růstománie“ – usilování o hospodářský růst nebo hromadění bohatství za každou cenu, bez ohledu na škody, které to může napáchat na životním prostředí zeměkoule nebo na společných hodnotách.

John Maynard Keynes se touto otázkou zabýval v roce 1930 v krátkém eseji „Ekonomické možnosti pro naše vnoučata“. Předpověděl, že za 100 let – to znamená do roku 2030 – se růst v rozvinutém světě v podstatě zastaví, protože lidé budou „mít dost na to“, aby vedli „dobrý život“. Placená pracovní doba se sníží na tři hodiny denně – tedy na patnáctihodinový pracovní týden. Lidé budou spíše jako „lilie na poli, jež se nelopotí ani neotáčejí“.

Keynesova předpověď se opírala o předpoklad, že při dvouprocentním ročním nárůstu kapitálu, jednoprocentním nárůstu produktivity a stabilním počtu obyvatel se průměrná životní úroveň zvýší zhruba osmkrát. To nám umožňuje vypočítat, kolik přesně pokládal Keynes za „dost“. HDP na obyvatele činil ve Velké Británii koncem 20. let (před krachem v roce 1929) přibližně 5200 dnešních liber (8700 dolarů). V souladu s tím Keynes odhadoval, že HDP na hlavu ve výši zhruba 40 000 liber (66 000 dolarů) bude „dost na to“, aby lidé mohli obrátit pozornost k příjemnějším věcem.

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