我们后代的经济学

东京—经济学这个职业还从未有过好危机。伊丽莎白女王二世有过著名的一问:经济学家为何不能预见灾难?她或许要求太高了些,但一个众人皆有的感觉是经济学家的研究有很多属于“无厘头”。更糟糕的是,经济学家所提出的很多建议对于寻求限制经济和金融灾难余波的决策者来说毫无用处。

我们的后代会比我们做得更好吗?在达沃斯世界经济论坛中,我参加的一次有点意思的活动是对2033年《经济学原理》教科书目录的想象。参与者认为,现存教科书所忽视的观点和主题不少,这些观点和主题会在二十年后获得更多的关注。

比如,游走在经济学和心理学之间的经济学家指出,行为金融——在这个学科中,人性弱点被用来解释所谓的有效市场假说的失灵——将会获得更重要的地位。与此同时,经济史家认为未来教科书会加入在长期历史记录中分析最新经验的内容。这(和其他内容一起)有助于未来经济学学生更严肃地研究经济制度的演变。

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