آلية بزوغ القوى الاقتصادية العظمى

أبرزت المظاهرات المعادية لليابان التي اجتاحت الصين التوترات التي تسود آسيا. وبالفعل إن أعراض الخوف من الصين تحمل مزيجاً من الآمال ولكنها تتألف بمعظمها من مخاوف تجتاح العالم كردة فعل على بروز الصين الاقتصادي. سؤال يطرح نفسه: هل على العالم أن يكون أكثر خوفاً أم أكثر تفاؤلاً؟

يخشى الأمريكيون أن تغرق أسواقهم بالبضائع الصينية، وتبدي المكسيك والبرازيل وأوروبا الوسطى وأندونيسيا وحتى سيريلانكا قلقها من منافسة الأجور المنخفضة لليد العاملة الصينية. قد يكون الأوربيون أكثر تفاؤلاً لاعتقادهم بأن السوق الصينية ستكون أكثر انفتاحاً ليس فقط على المنتجات الهندسية والمعدات الميكانيكية لتجهيز ورشة العالم الجديدة فحسب، لا بل على بضائع الرفاهية وحتى على الطلب السياحي الذي سترفعه الطبقة المتوسطة الجديدة المرفهة من الصينيين. يشعر الجميع بأن هزة انتقالية شديدة تلوح في الأفق.

تعتبر هذه البزوغات الاقتصادية نادرة ولكنها ليست غير مسبوقة. إذ يعتبر ازدهار الاقتصاد الألماني في القرن التاسع عشر وازدهار الاقتصاد الياباني في القرن العشرين من الأمثلة الأقرب للمقارنة.

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