¿Hollande o la insurrección?

PARIS - Para bien o para mal, Europa se está rebelando contra el pacto fiscal que condena a los países miembros de la Unión a una austeridad sin crecimiento. ¿Va a ser necesario un golpe militar para que se reconozca que la situación es insostenible?¿O la elección de François Hollande como presidente francés cambiará la postura intransigente de Alemania?

La perspectiva de reducir el déficit público a menos del 3% del PIB no es realista, ni en los Países Bajos ni en España. A menos que esté lista para aplicar medidas punitivas ya mismo, la UE tendrá que dar a estos países un margen adicional, teniendo en cuenta que la opinión pública europea tiende a responder negativamente cada vez que se le consulta. En Grecia no fue posible crear un gobierno tras los resultados de las últimas elecciones, por lo que habrá que volver a convocar el voto popular en junio.

Afortunadamente, Irlanda se encuentra en una situación menos preocupante, pero se aleja cada vez más la probabilidad de que el pacto fiscal sea aprobado en un referendo popular. Es verdad que la eliminación de la cláusula de unanimidad proporciona una manera de evitar este obstáculo y hacer posible la aplicación del pacto, pero esto no resuelve nada, porque ni Francia ni Italia lo ratificarán. Incluso los socialdemócratas alemanes, cuyo apoyo necesita la canciller Angela Merkel para lograr la ratificación en el Parlamento, parecen haber dado solo un apoyo condicional.

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