Hollande oder Aufstand?

PARIS – Mittlerweile ist Europa nolens volens in einen Aufstand gegen den Fiskalpakt verstrickt, der die Mitgliedsländer der Europäischen Union zu Sparpolitik ohne Wachstum verurteilt. Wird es eines Militärputsches bedürfen, um zu erkennen, dass die Situation unhaltbar ist? Oder wird die Wahl François Hollandes zum französischen Präsidenten etwas an der unnachgiebigen Haltung Deutschlands ändern?  

Die Senkung der Staatsschulden auf weniger als 3 Prozent des BIP  ist sowohl in den Niederlanden als auch in Spanien unrealistisch. Wenn man nicht bereit ist, auf der Stelle Strafmaßnahmen zu ergreifen, wird die EU diesen Ländern zusätzlichen Spielraum verschaffen müssen – eingedenk der Tatsache, dass die europäische Öffentlichkeit, jedes Mal wenn sie gefragt wird, zu negativen Reaktionen neigt. In Griechenland haben die jüngsten Wahlen nicht zur Bildung einer Regierung geführt, wodurch eine weitere Wahl nötig wird.  

Die Situation in Irland ist glücklicherweise weniger beunruhigend, aber die Chancen, dass die Iren dem Fiskalpakt bei einer Volksabstimmung zustimmen, werden schlechter. Die Entfernung der Einstimmigkeitsklausel eröffnet zugegebenermaßen eine Möglichkeit, dieses Hindernis zu umschiffen und den Pakt umzusetzen. Aber das löst kein Problem, denn weder Frankreich noch Italien werden den Pakt ratifizieren. Sogar die deutschen Sozialdemokraten, deren Unterstützung Kanzlerin Angela Merkel zur Ratifizierung des Pakts im Bundestag braucht, scheinen ihr nur bedingte Unterstützung zugesagt zu haben.

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