Die Geister der Geschichte im Iran

Anhand von geschichtlichen Analogien die Gegenwart zu interpretieren, ist sowohl verführerisch als auch gefährlich, da sich die Geschichte niemals wirklich wiederholt. Dennoch könnte es hilfreich sein, die drei am häufigsten herangezogenen Analogien zu analysieren, um zu verstehen, wie schwierig es ist, auf die Probleme zu reagieren, die die nuklearen Bestrebungen des Irans und seine antiisraelische Besessenheit derzeit darstellen.

Einige vergleichen das iranische Regime mit Nazi-Deutschland. Andere glauben, dass die einzige sinnvolle Analogie, die mit Europas alten Gleichgewicht-der-Kräfte-Spielchen ist. Wieder andere kombinieren beide und weisen auf das „Gleichgewicht des Schreckens“ während des Kalten Krieges hin. Anders ausgedrückt: Soll der Iran so behandelt werden wie Hitlerdeutschland 1938, Preußen 1756 oder wie Stalins Sowjetunion?

Jede Analogie enthält ein Fünkchen Wahrheit, aber selbstverständlich entspricht keine den realen Herausforderungen, die der Iran darstellt. Vor allem sollte jede Analogie, wenn man sie ernst nimmt, zu einer bestimmten Handlungsweise führen, und das ist heute bei weitem nicht der Fall.

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