La crise iranienne et les analogies historiques

Il est à la fois tentant et dangereux d'interpréter le présent à la lumière des analogies historiques, car rien dans l'Histoire ne se répète à l'identique. Néanmoins, il peut être utile d'analyser les trois analogies historiques auxquelles on fait souvent référence dans le cas de l'Iran pour comprendre la difficulté à répondre au problème que pose son ambition nucléaire et son obsession anti-israélienne.

La première analogie consiste à comparer le régime iranien au régime nazi. La deuxième est de faire référence à l'ancien jeu d'équilibre des pouvoirs en Europe, enfin la troisième combine les deux, tout en soulignant "l'équilibre de la terreur" durant la Guerre froide. Autrement dit, l'Iran doit-il être traité comme l'Allemagne hitlérienne de 1938, la Prusse de 1756 ou l'Union soviétique sous Staline ?

Chacune de ces analogies comporte une part de vérité, mais aucune évidemment ne correspond à la situation soulevée par le défi iranien. Et surtout, chacune, si on la considère comme fondée, devrait conduire à la mise en œuvre de mesures spécifiques, ce qui est loin d'être actuellement le cas.

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