历史的幽灵在伊朗徘徊

利用历史上的相似点来解释现今既诱人而又危险,因为历史从来都不完全重复自己。但是,为了理解如何难以应付伊朗的核子野心以及反以色列的成见所带来的种种问题,分析一下最为常用的三个相似点比较可能会有所帮助。

有人将伊朗政权与纳粹德国相比较。其他人相信,唯一有用的相似点就是欧洲古老的大国平衡游戏。还有些人将二者结合起来,指出在冷战期间的“恐怖的平衡”。换言之,是否像对待1938年的德国、1756年的普鲁士或者斯大林世代的苏联那样对付伊朗?

每个相似点都不无道理,但是,当然没有一个符合伊朗所代表的挑战现实。最为重要的是,如果认真看待每一个相似点都会导致采取具体的行动措施,而这就与当今的现实相差甚远。

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