Hizbulá, arrinconado

BEIRUT - El futuro de Hizbulá, la poderosa organización política y paramilitar chií del Líbano, nunca ha parecido más incierto que hoy. Dadas la creciente tensión con Israel y las posibles  acusaciones por parte del tribunal internacional que investiga el asesinato del ex Primer Ministro Rafic al-Hariri, Hizbulá parece estar acosada por todos lados.

La pregunta más inmediata se refiere a la posibilidad de otra guerra entre Israel y Hizbulá, temores que han ido aumentando este año, impulsados por información de que ha estado recibiendo nuevos suministros de misiles y las amenazas intermitentes de Israel. Quienes prevén una guerra argumentan que Israel no está dispuesto a tolerar un títere de Irán fuertemente armado en sus fronteras mientras las tensiones con Irán en torno al problema nuclear siguen si solución.

Si bien es improbable que estalle una guerra en los próximos meses, si las sanciones a Irán no tienen efectos antes de principios de 2011, Israel puede sentir la necesidad de tomar medidas. Si lanzara ataques con misiles a las instalaciones nucleares de Irán, es probable que Hizbulá se una al conflicto, e Israel tendría que atacarla al mismo tiempo. Otra posibilidad es que Israel emprenda una guerra preventiva contra Hizbulá para arrebatar a Irán la capacidad de tomar represalias en sus cercanías.

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