bank of england Shaun Curry/Stringer

搁浅的经济的救援直升机

伯克利—对名义利率为零或接近于零的国家来说,财政刺激应该是无脑选择。只要政府借贷利率低于通货膨胀、劳动力增长和劳动生产率增长率之和,新增债务的分期偿还成本就是负数。与此同时,增加支出的好处是巨大的。大型工业化经济体或协调扩张的凯恩斯货币乘数据信在2左右——这意味着增加一美元财政支出可以提振约两美元真实GDP。

一些人说,一旦经济复苏、利率升高,政府有可能无法对财政政策进行合适的调整。但这一观点似是而非。想追求坏政策的政府无论今天做出怎样的决定都会这样做。而即使这一风险确实存在,也可以用刺激所带来的实实在在的好处抵消:劳动力技能改善、商业投资增加、商业模式发展加速,以及有用的新基础设施。

厌恶财政扩张是一种原始思维,而不是务实考虑。合格的经济学家都能算出美国、德国和英国有着足够大的财政乘数;足够强的基础设施、投资和其他需求提振措施的溢出效应;以及让大幅扩张性政策成为最优选择的充足的金融空间。

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