Hat die Erholung in den USA begonnen?

CAMBRIDGE, MASS.: Obwohl die amerikanische Konjunktur weiter nachgibt, tut sie dies nicht mehr mit demselben Tempo wie zum Jahresende oder in den Wochen nach dem Zusammenbruch von Lehman Brothers im September 2008. In sofern kann man vernünftigerweise behaupten, dass der schlimmste Teil des Abschwungs jetzt hinter uns liegen dürfte.

Doch stimmt meine Lesart der Faktenlage nicht mit der jener überein, die behaupten, dass die Wirtschaft tatsächlich dabei sei, sich zu erholen, und dass vermutlich in den nächsten Monaten eine nachhaltige zyklische Erholung einsetzen werde. Obwohl das in diesem Jahr verabschiedete, aus Steuersenkungen und einer Erhöhung der Staatsausgaben bestehende Konjunkturpaket der Wirtschaft einen vorübergehenden Schub geben wird, dürften wir frühestens im nächsten Jahr den Beginn einer nachhaltigen Konjunkturerholung erleben.

Die Optimisten stützen ihre Behauptungen einer früheren Erholung auf eine Reihe unterschiedlicher Statistiken. Sie verweisen darauf, dass die Bautätigkeit zunimmt, die Häuserpreise langsamer fallen, sich die verfügbaren Einkommen der privaten Haushalte im ersten Quartal erhöhten, die Konsumausgaben gestiegen sind und die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt eine Verbesserung erkennen lässt.

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