Est-ce la reprise en Amérique ?

CAMBRIDGE – L'économie américaine continue peut-être  à décliner, mais à un rythme bien moins rapide qu'au début de l'année ou que dans les semaines qui ont suivi l'effondrement de Lehman Brothers en septembre 2008. En ce sens, on peut dire que le pire est probablement derrière nous.

Mais à la vue de ces éléments, je ne suis pas d'accord avec ceux qui disent que l'économie se redresse et que l'on peut s'attendre dans les prochains mois à son redémarrage pour un cycle assez long. Même si les plans de relance comportant des baisses d'impôt et davantage d'interventionnisme gouvernemental adoptés au début de l'année se traduisent par une augmentation temporaire de la croissance, dans le meilleur des cas il ne faut pas s'attendre à un redémarrage durable avant l'année prochaine.

Ceux qui croient à un redémarrage prochain s'appuient sur une gamme de statistiques. Ils soulignent que le secteur de la construction se redresse, que la baisse des prix de l'immobilier est ralentie, que le revenu disponible des ménages a augmenté au cours du premier trimestre, que leurs dépenses sont à la hausse, tandis que le marché du travail s'améliore.

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