Dostavila se globální stagdeflace?

NEW YORK – Poslední makroekonomické zprávy ze Spojených států, dalších rozvinutých ekonomik i rozvíjejících se trhů potvrzují, že globální ekonomika bude v roce 2009 čelit těžké recesi. V USA začala recese v prosinci 2007 a potrvá nejméně do prosince 2009 – bude to nejdelší a nejhlubší recese v USA od konce druhé světové války, přičemž celkový pokles HDP možná přesáhne 5%.

Recese v dalších rozvinutých ekonomikách (v eurozóně, Velké Británii, Evropské unii, Kanadě, Japonsku, Austrálii a na Novém Zélandě) začala ve druhém čtvrtletí roku 2008, než finanční chaos v září a říjnu dále zhoršil globální úvěrové zadrhnutí. Od té doby je tento pokles ještě výraznější.

Tvrdé přistání začínají pociťovat také rozvíjející se trhy, poněvadž recese v rozvinutých ekonomikách, klesající ceny komodit a odliv kapitálu si vyžádaly daň na růstu. Kvůli nízkým cenám komodit by měl svět v roce 2009 očekávat stav blížící se recesi také v Rusku a Brazílii. Čínu a Indii pak čeká prudké zpomalení, které se pro tyto země bude rovnat tvrdému přistání (růst zdaleka nebude odpovídat jejich potenciálu).

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