全球性的滞缩已经到来了吗?

纽约—来自美国、其他发达经济实体和新兴市场的最新宏观经济消息证明全球经济将在2009年面临严重的衰退。美国的衰退从2007年12月开始,而且最起码要持续到2009年12月—这是 美国自二战以来持续时间 最长,最严重的 一场危机 ,GDP(国内生产总值)大约将累计下滑超过5%。

其他发达经济实体 (欧元区、英国、欧盟、加拿大、日本、澳大利亚及新西兰)从2008年 的第二季度开始衰退,此后发生于9月和10月的金融风暴进一步加剧了全球的信贷萎缩。这种收缩态势自此以后愈演愈烈。

随着发达经济实体衰退,商品经济价格下降,资本外流对经济增长造成危害, 新兴市场的经济硬着陆现在也开始发生了。事实上,由于商品价格偏低,世界可能将于2009年目睹俄罗斯和巴西的准衰退,中国和印度则会大大放慢速度,这对于这些国家来说就等同于硬着陆(增长大大低于潜能)。

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