¿Ha perdido Estados Unidos su empuje?

Cambridge – Uno sabe que la autoestima de Estados Unidos ha sufrido un remezón incluso antes de que el Presidente comience a expresar temores de que la crisis financiera pueda terminar resultando peor que la Gran Depresión de los años 30. George Bush no es el único al que le preocupa que las cosas puedan empeorar bastante antes de comenzar a mejorar. Cada vez más conocedores del mundo de los negocios también están comenzando a preguntarse si Estados Unidos será capaz de enmendar su economía en algún momento del futuro cercano.

Los previsores económicos profesionales son considerablemente más optimistas: en general, el consenso entre ellos es que el crecimiento estadounidense en 2009 será cerca del -1,5%, tras una contracción similar en la segunda mitad de 2008. Será una dolorosa recesión, pero lejos de la caída de la producción de entre un 10 y un 15% que normalmente se asocia con una depresión con todas las de la ley. Por supuesto, últimamente los analistas que realizan proyecciones económicas han sido demasiado optimistas en cada giro de la situación, por lo que es comprensible que el público se muestre receloso de sus predicciones.

La generalidad de pronósticos sigue pareciendo optimista. Con un sistema financiero que sobrevive gracias al respirador artificial, una caída constante de los precios de las viviendas y un desempleo en aumento, la economía de Estados Unidos parece más vulnerable que en ningún momento desde los años 70, y quizás desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial.

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