Unbeschwerte Zeiten lassen auf sich warten

Das Nationale Büro für Wirtschaftsforschung, die Non-Profit-Organisation, die seit langem dafür verantwortlich ist, den Anfang und das Ende amerikanischer Rezessionen zu markieren, hat endlich erklärt, dass die Rezession vorbei ist, die laut NBER im März 2001 begonnen hat. Genau genommen sagt das NBER, dass sie vor fast zwei Jahren geendet hat, im November 2001.

Menschen, die sich nicht mit Wirtschaftswissenschaften beschäftigen, fällt es schwer zu verstehen, warum das NBER so lange gebraucht hat, um zu beschließen, dass die US-Rezession vorbei ist. Wirtschaftswissenschaften sollen keine exakte Wissenschaft sein, aber geht diese Verspätung nicht ein bisschen weit?

Wichtiger noch ist die Frage, warum es den Amerikanern nicht besser geht, wenn die Rezession vorbei ist und das so lange schon. Warum ist die wirtschaftliche Stimmung so schlecht? Die Antwortet verbirgt sich in der Definition einer Rezession. Die Fragen, die das NBER stellt, sind möglicherweise nicht die richtigen Fragen oder wenigstens die wirklich relevanten.

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