中国腾飞仍将持续

发自北京——在经历了过去30年年均9.8%的GDP增长后,中国的经济增长已连续13个季度放缓了——这是自1979年改革开放政策出台以来的首次长时间减速。今年第二季度的GDP增长年率仅为7.5%(刚好等于中国政府今年年初制定的目标)。许多指标显示经济正在进一步减速,越来越多的投资者对中国的前景感到悲观。那么中国会因此走向崩溃吗?

事实上,自2008年的金融危机以来,由于高收入经济体持续紧缩导致全球需求减少,许多其他快速增长的新兴经济体都遭受了比中国更为严重的影响。例如巴西的GDP增长已大幅放缓,从2010年的7.5%下降到2011年的2.7%,甚至是2012年的0.9%,同期印度的经济增长率也从10.5%下降到了3.2%。

此外,受2008金融危机的影响,许多存在结构性问题的高收入新工业化经济体(NIEs)也不能幸免。韩国的GDP增长率从2010年的6.3%降到2011的3.7%及2012年的2%;与此同时,台湾从10.7%下降到1.3%,新加坡则从14.8%直坠到1.3%。

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