中国腾飞仍将持续

发自北京——在经历了过去30年年均9.8%的GDP增长后,中国的经济增长已连续13个季度放缓了——这是自1979年改革开放政策出台以来的首次长时间减速。今年第二季度的GDP增长年率仅为7.5%(刚好等于中国政府今年年初制定的目标)。许多指标显示经济正在进一步减速,越来越多的投资者对中国的前景感到悲观。那么中国会因此走向崩溃吗?

事实上,自2008年的金融危机以来,由于高收入经济体持续紧缩导致全球需求减少,许多其他快速增长的新兴经济体都遭受了比中国更为严重的影响。例如巴西的GDP增长已大幅放缓,从2010年的7.5%下降到2011年的2.7%,甚至是2012年的0.9%,同期印度的经济增长率也从10.5%下降到了3.2%。

此外,受2008金融危机的影响,许多存在结构性问题的高收入新工业化经济体(NIEs)也不能幸免。韩国的GDP增长率从2010年的6.3%降到2011的3.7%及2012年的2%;与此同时,台湾从10.7%下降到1.3%,新加坡则从14.8%直坠到1.3%。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/1yKhXBp/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now