Los costos de la salida de Grecia

PARÍS – A principios de la semana, después de varios días de tensas discusiones, el nuevo gobierno de Atenas llegó a un acuerdo con sus acreedores de la eurozona que incluye un paquete de reformas inmediatas y una ampliación de cuatro meses del programa de asistencia económica. No obstante, a pesar del suspiro colectivo de alivio de Europa, el arreglo no excluye la necesidad de celebrar más negociaciones duras sobre un nuevo programa de asistencia financiera que debería entrar en vigor para finales de junio.

En cualquier negociación, una de las variables clave que influyen en la conducta de los protagonistas y por lo tanto en el resultado es cuál sería el costo para cada uno de ellos de no llegar a un acuerdo. En este caso, la cuestión es el costo de la salida de Grecia de la eurozona, una posibilidad que se discutió ampliamente en los medios a lo largo de las recientes negociaciones y que generó especulaciones considerables sobre la postura de los distintos actores, en especial los gobiernos griego y alemán.

Desde la perspectiva de Grecia, abandonar el euro provocaría muchos trastornos, lo que explica que en el país esa opción tenga muy poco apoyo. Pero, ¿qué hay de los costos de la salida de Grecia para el resto de la zona del euro? Desde que la cuestión se planteó por primera vez en 2011-2012, ha habido dos puntos de vista opuestos.

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