¿Cuál es el Plan B para Grecia?

TOKIO – Los mercados financieros han recibido la elección del nuevo gobierno de extrema izquierda de Grecia de una manera predecible. Pero, si bien la victoria del partido Syriza hizo que las acciones y los bonos griegos se desplomaran, existen pocas señales de contagio para otros países en crisis de la periferia de la eurozona. Los bonos a diez años de España, por ejemplo, siguen comercializándose a tasas de interés por debajo de los bonos del Tesoro de Estados Unidos. El interrogante es cuánto tiempo durará esta relativa calma.

En general se supone que al nuevo gobierno incendiario de Grecia no le quedarán muchas más opciones que la de adherir al programa de reforma estructural de su antecesor, quizás a cambio de una modesta relajación de la austeridad fiscal. No obstante ello, la dimensión política, social y económica de la victoria de Syriza son demasiado significativas como para ignorarlas. Por cierto, es imposible descartar por completo una salida griega dura del euro (“Grexit”), mucho menos controles de capital que efectivamente hagan que un euro dentro de Grecia valga menos que en cualquier otra parte.

Algunos responsables de las políticas monetarias de la eurozona parecen confiar en que una salida griega del euro, dura o suave, ya no planteará una amenaza para los otros países de la periferia. Podrían tener razón; pero recordemos que, en 2008, los responsables de las políticas en Estados Unidos pensaban que el colapso de una casa de inversión, Bear Stearns, había preparado a los mercados para la quiebra de otra, Lehman Brothers. Ya sabemos cómo resultaron las cosas.

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