Какой План Б для Греции?

ТОКИО – Финансовые рынки встретили избрание нового крайнего левого правительства Греции предсказуемым образом. Но, хотя победа партии СИРИЗА привела греческие акции и облигации к падению, есть мало признаков заражения у других проблемных стран на периферии еврозоны. Например, испанские десятилетние облигации все еще продаются ниже ставок Министерства Финансов США. Вопрос в том, как долго это относительное спокойствие просуществует.

Новое огнедышащее правительство Греции, как правило, предполагается, будет иметь небольшой выбор, кроме как придерживаться программы структурной реформы своего предшественника, возможно, в обмен на скромную релаксацию жесткой экономии бюджетных средств. Тем не менее, политические, социальные и экономические аспекты победы СИРИЗА являются слишком значительными, чтобы быть проигнорированными. В самом деле, невозможно полностью исключить тяжелый выход Греции из евро (“Grexit”), с гораздо меньшими контролями капитала, которые эффективно делают стоимость евро в Греции меньше, чем в другом месте.

Некоторые политики еврозоны, кажутся, уверенными, что выход Греции из евро, тяжелый или легкий, больше не будет представлять угрозу для других периферийных стран. Возможно, они правы; опять же, еще в 2008 году, американские политики думали, что крах одного инвестиционного дома, Bear Stearns, подготовил рынки к банкротству другого, Lehman Brothers. Мы знаем, что из этого получилось.

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