Was ist der Plan B für Griechenland?

TOKIO – Die Wahl der neuen griechischen Linksaußenregierung wurde von den Finanzmärkten so begrüßt, wie es zu erwarten war. Aber obwohl der Sieg der Syriza-Partei die griechischen Aktien- und Anleihenkurse auf Talfahrt geschickt hat, gibt es kaum Anzeichen für eine Ansteckung anderer Problemländer an der Peripherie der Eurozone. Die spanischen Anleihen mit zehnjähriger Laufzeit werden immer noch zu Zinsen gehandelt, die unter denen der US-Staatsanleihen liegen. Die Frage ist, wie lang diese relative Ruhe bestehen bleibt.

Allgemein wird angenommen, Griechenlands neue Feuer speiende Regierung habe kaum eine andere Wahl, als das Programm der Strukturreformen ihrer Vorgänger weiter zu führen, um als Gegenleistung dafür vielleicht eine leichte Lockerung der Haushaltssparprogramme zu bekommen. Trotzdem aber sind die politischen, sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Dimensionen des Syriza-Sieges zu bedeutsam, um sie zu ignorieren. Ein hartes griechisches Ausscheiden aus der Eurozone („Grexit“) kann unmöglich völlig ausgeschlossen werden, und viel weniger noch Kapitalkontrollen, die praktisch dazu führen könnten, dass ein in Griechenland erwirtschafteter Euro im Ausland weniger wert ist.

Einige Politiker der Eurozone scheinen zuversichtlich, dass ein weicher oder selbst ein harter griechischer Ausstieg aus dem Euro für die anderen Peripherieländer keine Bedrohung mehr darstellen würde. Vielleicht haben sie recht. Aber im Jahr 2008 dachten US-Politiker, der Zusammenbruch einer Investmentbank, Bear Stearns, würde die Märkte auf den Bankrott eines anderen Instituts, Lehman Brothers, vorbereiten. Wie das ausging, wissen wir.

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