希腊的B计划是什么?

东京—金融市场以可以预见的方式迎接了希腊新左翼政府的当选。但是,尽管左翼联盟(Syriza)的胜利导致希腊股票和债券跳水,但没有迹象表明暴跌会传染给欧元区其他受困外围国家。比如,西班牙十年期债券利率仍然低于美国国债。问题是这一相对平静会维持多久。

普遍看法是希腊新政府将别无选择,只能坚持前任的结构改革,也许作为回报可以略微放松一下财政紧缩。尽管如此,左翼联盟胜利的政治、社会和经济意义重大,不容忽视。事实上,不能完全排除希腊硬退出欧元区(“希腊退出”)的可能性,即少得多的资本管制事实上让希腊国内的欧元比其他地区价值更低。

一些欧元区决策者似乎自信满满地认为希腊退出欧元——不管是硬退出还是软退出——都不再是对其他外围国的威胁。他们也许是对的;但是,2008年时,美国决策者认为一家投资银行——贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)的倒闭将让市场为另一家投资银行——雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)的倒闭做好准备。我们都知道结果如何。

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