Louisa Gouliamaki/ Stringer

Una historia de dos reducciones de deuda

SINGAPUR – A finales del año 2015, la deuda pública de Grecia llegó a un nivel del 176% de su PIB, mientras que el ratio de deuda de Japón alcanzó un nivel del 248% de su respectivo PIB. Nunca, ni uno ni otro de estos dos gobiernos, pagará todo lo que debe. Las reducciones de la deuda y la monetización de la misma son inevitables, situación que pone a ambos países en una especie de vanguardia mundial. Ya que el total de la deuda pública y privada en todo el mundo representa el 215% del PIB mundial, y esta cifra está en aumento, se puede afirmar casi con certeza que las herramientas de las que Grecia y Japón dependan se aplicarán también en otros lugares.

Desde el año 2010, la discusión oficial de la deuda griega se ha desplazado, de manera caprichosa, del ámbito de la fantasía a convertirse gradualmente en una naciente realidad. El programa de rescate para Grecia que se puso en marcha ese año asumió que se podía lograr una ratio de deuda en disminución sin ningún tipo de reducción de la deuda privada. Después de una enorme reestructuración de la deuda privada en el año 2011, se prevé que el ratio alcance al 124%  hasta el año 2020, un objetivo que el Fondo Monetario Internacional  creía que podía ser alcanzado, “pero no con alta probabilidad”. Hoy en día, el FMI considera que un nivel de endeudamiento del 173% es posible hasta el año 2020, pero sólo si los acreedores europeos oficiales a los que debe Grecia otorgan un alivio adicional y significativo de la deuda.

Las perspectivas de Grecia con respecto a la sostenibilidad de su deuda han empeorado porque las autoridades de la eurozona se han negado a aceptar reducciones significativas de la deuda. El programa del año 2010  comprometió a Grecia a convertir un déficit fiscal primario (excluyendo el servicio de la deuda) del 5% del PIB en un superávit del 6%; pero, la austeridad necesaria para ofrecer la consolidación produjo una profunda recesión y un ratio de deuda en aumento. Ahora la eurozona está exigiendo que Grecia convierta su déficit primario del 1% del PIB del año 2015 en un superávit del 3.5% del PIB, y que mantenga dicha posición fiscal durante las próximas décadas.

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