Yanis Varoufakis Brookings Institution/Flickr

Le due valute della Grecia

ATENE – Immaginate un depositante nello stato americano dell'Arizona a cui è consentito di prelevare solo piccole quantità di denaro contante a settimana e che deve far fronte a restrizioni su quanti soldi potrebbe trasferire su un conto bancario in California. Tali controlli sui capitali, se mai ci fossero, segnerebbero la fine del dollaro come moneta unica, in quanto tali vincoli sono del tutto incompatibili con una unione monetaria.

Oggi la Grecia (e Cipro prima) offre un caso di studio di come i controlli sui capitali dividono in due parti una valuta e alterano gli incentivi aziendali. Il processo è semplice. Una volta che i depositi in euro sono imprigionati all'interno di un sistema bancario nazionale, la moneta si divide essenzialmente in due parti: euro bancari e euro liberi. Improvvisamente, emerge un tasso di cambio informale tra le due valute.

Si consideri un depositante greco desideroso di convertire una vasta somma di euro bancari in euro liberi (per esempio, per pagare le spese mediche all'estero, o per rimborsare un debito societario a una società non greca). Supponendo che tali depositanti trovano dei possessori di euro liberi disposti ad acquistare i loro euro bancari, emerge un sostanziale tasso di cambio euro libero-euro bancario, che varia con le dimensioni dell’operazione, l’impazienza dei titolari di euro bancari e la durata prevista dei controlli sui capitali.

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