greece hourglass Patrick Pleul/ZumaPress

Europa: ultimo atto?

NEW YORK – I leader dell’Unione Europea continuano a condurre il gioco della politica del rischio calcolato con il governo greco. La Grecia è venuta incontro alle richieste dei suoi creditori molto più del minimo indispensabile. Tuttavia la Germania e gli altri creditori continuano a chiedere che il Paese firmi un programma destinato a fallire, e che pochi economisti avrebbero mai pensato che potesse, vorrebbe o dovrebbe essere attuato. 

Il cambiamento della situazione fiscale greca da un ampio disavanzo primario a un avanzo è stato quasi senza precedenti, ma la richiesta che il Paese raggiunga un avanzo primario del 4,5% del Pil era irragionevole. Sfortunatamente, al tempo in cui la “troika” – la Commissione Europea, la Banca Centrale Europea e il Fondo Monetario Internazionale – per prima ha incluso la richiesta irresponsabile nel programma di finanziamento internazionale per la Grecia, le autorità del Paese non avevano altra possibilità che aderire.

La follia di continuare a perseguire tale programma è particolarmente acuta adesso, considerato il calo del 25% del Pil che la Grecia ha dovuto patire dall’inizio della crisi. La troika ha interpretato male gli effetti macroeconomici del programma che ha imposto. In base alle sue previsioni, essa riteneva che, tagliando i salari e accettando altre misure di austerity, le esportazioni greche sarebbero aumentate e l’economia sarebbe presto tornata a crescere. Essa inoltre credeva che la prima ristrutturazione del debito avrebbe portato alla sostenibilità del debito.

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