greece hourglass Patrick Pleul/ZumaPress

欧洲的最后行动?

纽约—欧盟领导人继续与希腊政府进行着边缘政策博弈。希腊已经满足了债权人的一大半要求。但德国和其他希腊债权人仍继续要求希腊签署已经证明失败了的计划,极少有经济学家认为这一计划可以、将会或应该得到实施。

希腊财政处境从大规模初级赤字转为盈余,如此进步几乎前所未见,但要求该国实现初级盈余达到GDP的4.5%是不合理的。不幸的是,“三驾马车”——欧盟委员会、欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织(IMF)——首次将这一不负责任的要求纳入希腊国际金融计划中时,希腊当局别无选择,只能屈从。

继续追求这一计划的荒谬之处如今已经显露无疑,自危机开始以来,希腊GDP已经下降了25%。三驾马车严重误判了该计划给希腊宏观经济造成的影响。根据三驾马车公布的预测,它们相信,通过削减工资和接受其他紧缩措施,希腊出口将有所增加,经济将快速回归增长。它们还相信首次债务重组就可以带来债务可持续性。

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