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Los mercados emergentes deberían ir por el oro

CAMBRIDGE – ¿Los bancos centrales de los mercados emergentes están excedidos de peso en dólares y demasiado delgados en oro? Frente a una desaceleración de la economía global, en la que los mercados emergentes probablemente estén muy agradecidos por las reservas que lograron conservar, ésta podría parecer una pregunta inoportuna. Sin embargo, se podría aducir que un giro en los mercados emergentes a favor de una acumulación de oro ayudaría a que el sistema financiero internacional funcionara de manera más fluida, para beneficios de todos.

Sólo para ser claro, no le estoy dando la razón a quienes defienden un retorno al patrón oro –por lo general, unos chiflados norteamericanos de extrema derecha-. Después de todo, el último reinado del patrón oro –según el cual los países fijan el valor de sus monedas en términos de oro- terminó de manera desastrosa en los años 1930, y no existen motivos para creer que un retorno al patrón oro tendría un desenlace diferente esta vez.  

No, sólo estoy proponiendo que los mercados emergentes conviertan a oro una porción importante de los billones de dólares en reservas de monedas extranjera que hoy tienen en su poder (solamente China tiene reservas oficiales de 3,3 billones de dólares). Inclusive una conversión, digamos, de hasta el 10% de sus reservas a oro no los acercaría en absoluto a los muchos países ricos que tienen el 60-70% de sus reservas oficiales (por cierto menores) en oro.

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