Two dismal months for financial markets may give way to a relief rally for global equities, as some key central banks ease policy more, while others will remain on hold for longer. But repeated eruptions from seven sources of global tail risk will make the rest of this year a bad one for risk assets and anemic for global growth.
NEW YORK – The question I am asked most often nowadays is this: Are we back to 2008 and another global financial crisis and recession?
My answer is a straightforward no, but that the recent episode of global financial market turmoil is likely to be more serious than any period of volatility and risk-off behavior since 2009. This is because there are now at least seven sources of global tail risk, as opposed to the single factors – the eurozone crisis, the Federal Reserve “taper tantrum,” a possible Greek exit from the eurozone, and a hard economic landing in China – that have fueled volatility in recent years.
First, worries about a hard landing in China and its likely impact on the stock market and the value of the renminbi have returned with a vengeance. While China is more likely to have a bumpy landing than a hard one, investors’ concerns have yet to be laid to rest, owing to the ongoing growth slowdown and continued capital flight.