Elogio de los desequilibrios mundiales

SINGAPUR – En las últimas semanas, ha habido un coro de opinión partidario de un fuerte aumento de la inversión mundial, en particular en infraestructuras. El ex Secretario del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos Lawrence Summers ha afirmado que la inversión pública es, en realidad, gratuita, mientras que la Directora Gerente del FMI, Christine Lagarde, ha sostenido que, para que la economía mundial “supere un nuevo período mediocre”,  hace falta un impulso a la inversión.

Esas observaciones indican que el mundo lleva muchos años padeciendo una inversión inferior a la necesaria. En realidad, según los datos del Fondo Monetario Internacional, la tasa de inversión mundial total actual, que asciende al 24,5 por ciento del PIB mundial, está cerca del máximo habido a lo largo de sus variaciones a largo plazo. La cuestión no es una falta de inversión total, sino el hecho de que un porcentaje desproporcionado proceda de China.

El porcentaje de inversión mundial correspondiente a China se ha disparado desde el 4,3 por ciento en 1995 hasta el 25,8 por ciento en este año. En cambio, el porcentaje de los Estados Unidos, cuyo punto máximo fue el 36 por ciento en 1985, ha bajado hasta el 18 por ciento. La dismunición del del Japón ha sido más espectacular, desde un máximo del 22 por ciento en 1993 hasta tan sólo el 5,7 por ciento en 2013.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/zOv1467/es;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now