Elogio de los desequilibrios mundiales

SINGAPUR – En las últimas semanas, ha habido un coro de opinión partidario de un fuerte aumento de la inversión mundial, en particular en infraestructuras. El ex Secretario del Tesoro de los Estados Unidos Lawrence Summers ha afirmado que la inversión pública es, en realidad, gratuita, mientras que la Directora Gerente del FMI, Christine Lagarde, ha sostenido que, para que la economía mundial “supere un nuevo período mediocre”,  hace falta un impulso a la inversión.

Esas observaciones indican que el mundo lleva muchos años padeciendo una inversión inferior a la necesaria. En realidad, según los datos del Fondo Monetario Internacional, la tasa de inversión mundial total actual, que asciende al 24,5 por ciento del PIB mundial, está cerca del máximo habido a lo largo de sus variaciones a largo plazo. La cuestión no es una falta de inversión total, sino el hecho de que un porcentaje desproporcionado proceda de China.

El porcentaje de inversión mundial correspondiente a China se ha disparado desde el 4,3 por ciento en 1995 hasta el 25,8 por ciento en este año. En cambio, el porcentaje de los Estados Unidos, cuyo punto máximo fue el 36 por ciento en 1985, ha bajado hasta el 18 por ciento. La dismunición del del Japón ha sido más espectacular, desde un máximo del 22 por ciento en 1993 hasta tan sólo el 5,7 por ciento en 2013.

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