Éloge des déséquilibres mondiaux

SINGAPOUR – Au cours des dernières semaines, une majorité de l'opinion publique a plaidé en faveur d'une forte augmentation des investissements mondiaux, en particulier dans les infrastructures. L'ancien Secrétaire au Trésor des États-Unis Lawrence Summers déclaré que les investissements publics sont un vrai cadeau sans retour, tandis que la Directrice générale du FMI Christine Lagarde a fait valoir qu'un regain de l'investissement est nécessaire si l'économie mondiale entend « dépasser un nouveau résultat médiocre. »

Ces commentaires suggèrent que le monde a sous-investi depuis de nombreuses années. En fait, selon les chiffres du Fonds Monétaire International, le taux actuel global des investissements mondiaux, à 24,5% du PIB mondial, est proche de son rendement à long terme maximum. Le problème n'est pas un manque d'investissement global, mais le fait qu'une part disproportionnée provient de la Chine.

La part des investissements mondiaux réalisés par la Chine a grimpé de 4,3% en 1995 à près de 25,8% cette année. En revanche, la part des États-Unis, qui a culminé à 36% en 1985, a chuté à moins de 18%. La baisse de la part du Japon a été plus spectaculaire, passant d'un maximum de 22% en 1993 à seulement 5,7% en 2013.

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