Skyscraper windows and city in reflection

En busca de estrategias de crecimiento

MILÁN – En 2008, la Comisión sobre Crecimiento y Desarrollo del Banco Mundial, que tuve el privilegio de presidir, presentó un informe con conocimiento actualizado sobre los modelos de crecimiento sostenible. Entonces, como ahora, una cosa estaba clara: las políticas que sostienen períodos de varias décadas de alto crecimiento, transformación estructural, aumento del empleo y los ingresos, y gran reducción de la pobreza se refuerzan mutuamente. El impacto de cada una resulta amplificado por las otras. Son ingredientes en recetas que funcionan, y lo mismo que en las recetas, la falta de un ingrediente puede afectar seriamente el resultado.

Para comprender las pautas de crecimiento (débil, frágil y con visos de empeorar) que vemos hoy en muchos países y en toda la economía mundial, deberíamos comparar la realidad con lo que esperaríamos ver en unas estrategias de crecimiento razonablemente integrales. Claro que hay muchas políticas capaces de sostener un crecimiento elevado, y hasta cierto punto dependen de cada país. Pero hay unos pocos ingredientes clave que aparecen en todos los ejemplos de éxito conocidos.

El primero es un alto nivel de inversión pública y privada. Los países en desarrollo exitosos invierten el 30% de su PIB o más. El componente del sector público (infraestructura, capital humano y la base de conocimiento y tecnología de la economía) se sitúa en la franja del 5 al 7%. Y las inversiones de los sectores público y privado son complementarias: las primeras aumentan la rentabilidad de las segundas, y con ella, su volumen.

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