Skyscraper windows and city in reflection

Alla ricerca di strategie pro-crescita

MILANO – Nel 2008 la Commissione per la Crescita e lo Sviluppo, che ho avuto il privilegio di presiedere, ha prodotto un report sulle più recenti conoscenze in fatto di modelli di crescita sostenibile. Allora, come ora, una cosa è chiara: le politiche che sono alla base di pluridecenni di elevata crescita, trasformazione strutturale, occupazione e redditi crescenti e ridotti livelli di povertà si rafforzano reciprocamente. L’impatto di ciascuna è amplificato dalle altre. Sono gli ingredienti di ricette che funzionano, e come con le ricette, se manca qualcosa il risultato può cambiare.

Per comprendere i modelli crescita deboli, deteriorati e fragili cui assistiamo oggi in molti Paesi e nell’economia globale nel suo insieme, bisognerebbe fare un confronto tra ciò che sta effettivamente accadendo e quali siano le strategie di crescita ragionevolmente esaustive. Ovviamente, ci sono molte politiche che sostengono una crescita elevata, e per certi versi sono specifiche per Paese. Ma alcuni ingredienti sono comuni al successo di alcuni casi ben noti.

Il primo riguarda gli elevati livelli di investimenti pubblici e privati. Nei Paesi in via di sviluppo di successo, gli investimenti sono pari o superiori al 30% del Pil. La componente del settore pubblico (infrastrutture, capitale umano, conoscenze dell’economia e base tecnologica) rientra nel range 5-7%. E gli investimenti del settore pubblico e privato sono complementari: i primi alzano il tasso di rendimento dei secondi.

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