Skyscraper windows and city in reflection

البحث عن استراتيجيات النمو

ميلانو- في عام 2008، قدمت لجنة النمو والتنمية، التي كان لي شرف ترؤسها، تقريرا لاستكمال معرفتنا حول أنماط النمو المستدامة. آن ذاك، كما هو الحال اليوم، يوجد شيء واحد واضح: أن السياسات التي تدعم فترات عدة عقود من النمو المرتفع، والتحول الهيكلي، وارتفاع فرص العمل والدخل، وتخفيضات هائلة في الفقر تعزز بعضها البعض. إن تأثير كل منها يتم تضخيمه من قبل الآخرين. إنها المكونات التي توجد في الوصفات الناجحة - وكما هو معروف في الوصفات، يمكن للعناصر المفقودة التقويض من النتيجة بشكل كبير.

لفهم أنماط النمو الضعيفة، المتدهورة والهشة، التي نراها اليوم في العديد من البلدان وفي الاقتصاد العالمي ككل، ينبغي على المرء أن يقارن بين ما يحدث في الواقع ومع ما تبدو عليه استراتيجيات النمو الشاملة. بالطبع، هناك العديد من السياسات التي تدعم النمو المرتفع، وإلى حد ما فهي خاصة بكل بلد على حدة. ولكن يوجد عدد قليل من المكونات الرئيسية المشتركة بين جميع الحالات الناجحة المعروفة.

المكون الأول  يتضمن مستويات عالية من الاستثمار العام والخاص. في البلدان النامية الناجحة، يصل الاستثمار إلى أو فوق 30٪ من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي. و يبقى مكون القطاع العام (البنية التحتية، رأس المال البشري، معرفة الاقتصاد و قاعدة التكنولوجيا) في حدود 5-7٪. أما استثمارات القطاعين العام والخاص فهي مكملة: الأول يرفع معدل العائد لهذا الأخير، وبالتالي يرفع من مستواه.

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