Amusement park ride balloons Raging Wire/Flickr

¿Se acabaron los buenos tiempos?

STANFORD – En los 25 años que precedieron la Gran Recesión de 2008-2009, los Estados Unidos experimentaron dos recesiones breves y ligeras y dos expansiones fuertes y largas. A nivel global, los ingresos aumentaron rápidamente, la inflación disminuyó y los mercados de valores prosperaron. Además, la recuperación de la última desaceleración importante, a principios de los años ochenta, trajo consigo aproximadamente 25 años de desempeño macroeconómico sin precedentes por su fortaleza y estabilidad. No obstante, esta vez regresar a la etapa de crecimiento ha sido mucho más difícil.

La recuperación de los Estados Unidos desde la Gran Recesión ha sido inconstante; el crecimiento ha comenzado y se ha detenido varias veces. De hecho, los Estados Unidos no han tenido tres trimestres consecutivos con crecimiento de 3% en una década. Aunque los precios bajos del petróleo dan alivio a los consumidores, esa ventaja se ve anulada en parte por una menor inversión en energía, y los efectos del dólar más fuerte serán incluso mayores.

Los Estados Unidos no son los únicos. Si bien la mayoría de las economías europeas están volviendo a crecer, con ayuda de la disminución de los precios del petróleo y la depreciación de divisas, el ritmo de la expansión sigue siendo anémico. Igualmente, la recuperación de Japón es frágil a pesar de los intensos esfuerzos del gobierno. Incluso las principales economías emergentes, que supuestamente funcionarían como motores del crecimiento en los próximos años, están teniendo dificultades: el ritmo de crecimiento en China y la India ha disminuido y Brasil y Rusia se están contrayendo.

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