Amusement park ride balloons Raging Wire/Flickr

Sono finiti i bei tempi?

STANFORD – Nei 25 anni precedenti la Grande Recessione del 2008-2009, gli Stati Uniti hanno assistito a due recessioni brevi e deboli e a due espansioni forti e durature. A livello globale, i redditi sono cresciuti rapidamente, l’inflazione è scesa e i mercati azionari hanno subito un’impennata. Inoltre, la ripresa dall’ultimo peggiore periodo negativo, agli inizi degli anni ’80, ha portato a una performance macroeconomica forte e stabile senza precedenti durata circa un quarto di secolo. Questa volta, tuttavia, il ritorno alla crescita è stato molto più difficile.

La ripresa dell’America dalla Grande Recessione è stata altalenante, con una crescita che aumentava ripetutamente e poi rallentava. Infatti, gli Stati Uniti non hanno sperimentato una crescita del 3% per tre trimestri consecutivi nell’arco di un decennio. Anche se il calo dei prezzi del petrolio sta aiutando i consumatori, tale fattore positivo è in parte controbilanciato da minori investimenti nel settore energetico, e gli effetti del rafforzamento del dollaro saranno anche maggiori.

Gli Usa non sono i soli. Nonostante la maggior parte delle economie europee sia tornata a crescere di nuovo, grazie al calo dei prezzi del petrolio e al deprezzamento valutario, il ritmo di espansione resta debole. Analogamente, la ripresa del Giappone resta fragile, nonostante i notevoli sforzi da parte del governo. Anche le principali economie emergenti, che si credeva dovessero agire da motori della crescita globale nei prossimi anni, stanno arrancando: la Cina e l’India rallentano, mentre l’economia del Brasile e della Russia sono in contrazione.

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