抗药性的经济后果

伦敦—7月,英国首相卡梅伦要我领导一个寻找日益严重的耐药性全球问题解决方案的项目,我的第一个问题是:“这是个什么玩意?”很快我就了解到,随着细菌和寄生虫发展出对已有药物(如抗生素和抗疟疾药物)的抗药性,世界有可能在对抗传染病的战斗中败下阵来。因此,我的下一个问题是:“为什么找我?你需要的难道不是科学家吗?”

看起来,抗药性升高的问题既是科学或医学问题,也是经济学问题。据称(有待核实)这一问题每年要杀死数百万人,并且对世界经济表现造成严重的消极影响。对发展中经济体,包括大部分金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国)以及薄荷国家(MINT,墨西哥、印度尼西亚、尼日利亚和土耳其),这一风险尤其巨大。

由我领导的最新研究独立调查了抗药性问题,对抗药性现象可能造成的世界经济影响做了建模。模型表明,如果我们不能解决抗药性,问题会越来越糟糕。

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