Recuperación del desastre global

PALO ALTO – Dado que la economía global está sumergida en la recesión y la crisis financiera, los encargados del diseño de políticas en todas partes han iniciado una serie de respuestas monetarias, financieras y fiscales. No obstante, las economías se siguen contrayendo, el desempleo sigue aumentando y la riqueza sigue disminuyendo.

Las respuestas de política de los países han sido desde modestas hasta enormes.  China ha puesto en marcha un paquete de estímulos del 6% del PIB orientado (principalmente) a la infraestructura; Estados Unidos ha promulgado un paquete de gasto y desgravación fiscal por 800 mil millones de dólares a lo largo de dos años. La Reserva Federal y El Banco de Inglaterra rebajaron sus metas de tasas de interés a corto plazo casi a cero y están aplicando una "flexibilización cuantitativa" –es decir, una inyección continua de dinero.

A pesar de todo esto, quedan grandes reservas bancarias excedentes que no se destinan a los créditos. Durante la “década perdida” de Japón, el Banco de Japón compró principalmente bonos del gobierno japonés, mientras que la Reserva Federal está intentando reabrir los mercados secundarios a los créditos privados titulizados (que en Estados Unidos son tan importantes como los créditos bancarios), la compra de valores respaldados por hipotecas y los créditos al consumo y a las empresas, así como los bonos de la Tesorería estadounidense. El Banco de Inglaterra está comprando bonos del gobierno del Reino Unido (papel del Estado).  El Banco Central Europeo ha respondido con más lentitud, lo que refleja su preocupación de desencadenar una fuerte inflación.

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