伊朗攻略

华盛顿特区—随着美国《国家情报预估》的发布,伊朗与布什政府发生军事冲突的可能性已经降低了。据该报告称伊朗已经中止了其核武器计划。但危险还没有过去,因为伊朗并未放弃制造核武器,而它所获得的浓缩铀最终可以被用于该目的。

相关各方都需要寻找到一个解决方案,在这种危险演化成冲突之前将其化解。近几年西方外交的焦点是将伊朗总统内贾德作为解决危机的关键。但这种策略走入了死胡同。

让我们回想一下内贾德的两位前任。卡塔米(1997-2005)试图实行大刀阔斧的政治改革,而拉夫桑贾尼(1989-97)则企图让伊朗经济向西方开放。但两人都没有成功,因为伊朗这个国家并不是由总统主导的。核困境的解决方案—或者任何其他伊朗外交关系中的问题的解决方案—都由“最高领导人”哈梅内依决定。

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