Paul Lachine

让德国人(再次)点头

发自日内瓦——欧洲缓慢发酵的主权债务危机看似特殊,其实却早有先例。早在数十年前欧洲就曾建立过一项“汇率机制协议”,随后却在一场与当前类似的危机中灰飞烟灭。那么此次危机的后果又会与往年不同吗?

当时的汇率机制协议力图将欧洲大部分国家货币的汇率变动限制在一定范围之内。然而其成员国的货币政策却依然由本国制定,既然如此,偶尔的财政失衡当然也在所难免。一旦资本市场察觉到某些成员国出现了问题,他们必定做空其中最脆弱国家的货币并逼迫该国政府贬值。而政府一般不肯就范,还指责投机者,但在匆忙抵挡了几天之后必定败下阵来。

对于那些经济健全的汇率机制成员国,市场也会检验其政策制定者的决心,尤其是在突发重大事件或是大选之时。在某些案例中,即便是一个经济基础稳固,金融运作有序的政府也可能陷入麻烦。欧洲央行行长让-克劳德·特里谢深知这一点:在1990年代初,时任法国央行行长的他就应对过类似的危机。

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