所有人的风险

剑桥—我们这些有幸生在发达世界的人为无数小风险(或不太可能发生之事)而苦恼:食物中的致癌物质、空难,等等。但我们比我们所认为的更不安全。我们否认百年一遇的灾难情景。

关于人口增长带来的对生物圈的无度需求以及资源稀缺和气候变化带来的经济和政治冲突所可能造成的生态冲击,我们已经有了数不清的著作。更令人担心的是强大的新网络、生物和纳米技术带来的不利风险:通过错误或者恐怖,一小撮人可能带来社会的急速崩塌,政府根本来不及响应。

“人类世”(Anthropocene)时代——全球威胁来源于人类而不是自然界——因热核武器的大规模部署而变得极其危险。冷战期间,两大超级大国的错误警报和误算时有发生,有几次甚至险些触发末日核大战。

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