Graffiti in Berlin, Germany

La fine dell’egemonia tedesca

BRUXELLES – Senza che nessuno se ne stia accorgendo, l’asse del potere interno dell’Europa si sta spostando. La posizione dominante della Germania, che è parsa assoluta a partire dalla crisi finanziaria del 2008, si sta gradualmente indebolendo - con conseguenze di vasta portata per l’Unione Europea.

Naturalmente il solo fatto che le persone credono che la Germania sia forte rafforza la posizione strategica e lo status del paese. Ma non ci vorrà molto prima che le persone comincino a rendersi conto che il principale fattore di quella percezione - che l’economia tedesca ha continuato a crescere, mentre la maggior parte delle economie dell’Eurozona ha vissuto una lunga recessione - rappresenta una circostanza eccezionale, che presto scomparirà.

In 12 degli ultimi 20 anni, il tasso di crescita della Germania è stato inferiore alla media degli altri tre maggiori stati dell’Eurozona (Francia, Italia e Spagna). Anche se la crescita della Germania ha visto un’impennata nel periodo post-crisi, come mostra il grafico, il Fondo Monetario Internazionale prevede che scenderà al di sotto della media dei tre paesi - e di gran lunga al di sotto della media dell’Eurozona, che comprende i più piccoli paesi a elevata crescita dell’Europa centrale e dell’est - entro cinque anni.

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