France et Allemagne au cœur du destin européen

PARIS – Lorsque le Fonds monétaire international a revu à la baisse ses prévisions de croissance mondiale pour 2014 et 2015, les faisant respectivement passer de 3,7 % et 3,9 % à 3,3 % et 3,8 %, il a cité comme principale cause les perspectives de plus en plus défavorables de la zone euro, et notamment une croissance significativement plus lente en Allemagne. En effet, la zone euro représente encore aujourd’hui environ 13 % de la production mondiale aux prix du marché – soit une proportion comparable à celle de la Chine.

Les difficultés économiques de l’Europe se reflètent dans sa situation politique, de nombreux électeurs européens s’enlisant actuellement dans un sentiment de désespoir, et s’abandonnant de plus en plus aux idéologies extrêmes. Pour autant, la publication prochaine d’un rapport rédigé par deux économistes de renom – Jean Pisani-Ferry, Commissaire général de la planification des politiques économiques auprès du gouvernement français, et Henrik Enderlein, dirigeant clé d’un groupe d’économistes allemands réformistes – pourrait bien permettre à l’Europe d’aller de l’avant.

La difficulté à laquelle s’attaquent Pisani-Ferry et Enderlein consiste en l’élaboration d’une nouvelle stratégie de réforme au sein des deux plus grandes économies d’Europe, l’accent étant mis sur les réformes structurelles en France, et sur l’accroissement des investissements en Allemagne. L’espoir consiste à voir ce rapport – qui sera rendu public le 1er décembre – faire émerger une avancée susceptible de raviver enfin le moteur de croissance de la zone euro.

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