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德国抵制俄罗斯能源会怎样？

Apr 15, 2022 Dalia Marin

慕尼黑—自俄罗斯总统普京入侵乌克兰以来，德国政府承受着越来越大的压力，被要求加入拟议中的欧洲对俄罗斯的能源禁运。人们普遍认为，要停止俄罗斯的战争，必须切断其财源，比如数十亿美元的石油和天然气出口付款。

德国政府反对能源禁运，经济部长罗伯特·哈贝克（Robert Habeck）认为这将导致大规模失业、贫困和全面社会动荡。但这些担忧真的存在吗？

德国当然严重依赖俄罗斯的能源。它从俄罗斯采购 55% 的天然气、34% 的石油和 26% 的煤炭。但寻找俄罗斯石油和煤炭的替代品并不是特别困难。

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 10 Comments on this article

xon ack May 2, 2022

we'd likely see a recession, which is a bit on the more disastrous side of things that could happen - especially after the GDP contraction due to covid.
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xon ack May 2, 2022

Are we potentially seeing the start of a lost decade for Germany?
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xon ack May 2, 2022

Is there a good place to read up on these reserves?
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Emil Muhamad Apr 18, 2022

Any losses from this embargo actually could be avoided. Why count losses when we can totally avoid them. Economically speaking this is an irrational choice.
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Ron Batten Apr 17, 2022

Yes, of course, economists' models, despite being gross simplifications of reality, have perfectly predicted all kinds of economic disasters that have happened since WW II. Of course this is nonsense!
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Ron Batten Apr 17, 2022

A deep dive analysis is necessary to determine what the systemic risk is and how big it is. Taking into account that risk = probablity times maximum damage.
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Ron Batten Apr 17, 2022

That is called systemic risk. If Paulson had reasised in 2007 that letting Lehman go bankrupt would create a systemic risk, he probably would not have done it. And we would not have had the financial crisis.
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Ron Batten Apr 17, 2022

Only if The Netherlands is willing to sell it. They have a decade of earthquakes in the area of gas exploitation and have not even really started compensating inhabitants. Dutch politicians -- embarrassed by their own incompetence -- are saying they will not produce more gas, but less each year.
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Ron Batten Apr 17, 2022

Yes, modern macro-economic models have been infallible. They predicted the Financial crisis way ahead of time (NOT!).
I would not trust any economic model (which is necessarily a simplification of reality) to take the systemic risk involved here.
It would be different in an emergency situation, i.e. when Putin starts the boycott. But it looks like Putin knows a gas boycott would hurt him more than it would hurt Europe.
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Ron Batten Apr 17, 2022

The German government argues that there is a systemic risk. A risk that a stop to Russian gas supplies starts a chain reaction or a domino effect, affecting one economic sector after another. It is not sure how big the risk is, or how it would work exactly. But the potential damage it could generate warrants further study.
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